Description

Org. Source:
Source 1 (https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1095527#:~:text=The%20Future%20…).
Source 2 (https://aerospace.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Future-of-Space…)

TLDR: Air Force Space command created a report to inform different U.S. government organizations about the role that space will play in the future. The report determined 8 future space scenarios from most optimistic (Star Trek Future) to least optimistic (Dark Skies).
The longterm goal is to strive towards the most optimistic future (Star Trek), which will lead to thousands of humans living or working in habitats across cislunar space, the moon and mars. This will very likely lead to disclosure of advanced technologies by secret government programs & NHI in the fields of advanced propulsions, energy and healing methods.

Abstract:
The Future of Space 2060 aims to inform Air Force Space Command, NASA, and other U.S. Government organizations on the future national security environment and the role that space will play in that environment. The Space Futures Workshop, convened in March of 2019, built upon the work of NATOs Strategic Foresight Analysis with a specific focus on how political, economic, and technology trends could play out in the space domain.
The goal of this work is to build an understanding of the range of possible future space scenarios to inform leaders of the technology investments, national strategies, intergovernmental plans, and partnerships with the commercial sector that must be created to ensure a positive future for the nation. This report is a first step in that direction.

Corporate Author:
Air Force Space Command Peterson AFB United States

*Comment from me:*
*Ill focus only on a specific part of the report which is related to the future scenarios.*

8 Future Space Scenarios

https://preview.redd.it/0eym1kn5n2gb1.png?width=718&format=png&auto=w…

A.1 Positive scenarios

* Star Trek: *Most optimistic and expansive*
The U.S. coalition retains leadership over the space domain and has introduced free-world laws and processes that have led to significant global civil, commercial, and military expansion in space and resulted in large revenue streams. Thousands of humans live or work in space at a variety of habitats across cislunar space, the Moon, and Mars.
* Garden Earth: *Optimistic and expansive*
The U.S. coalition retains leadership over the space domain and has introduced free-world laws and processes that have led to significant global civil, commercial, and military expansion in space and resulted in large revenue streams. However, human presence is limited and most processes are controlled remotely or robotically.
* Elysium: *Optimistic and expansive*
The U.S. coalition retains leadership over the space domain and has introduced free-world laws and processes that have led to significant global civil, commercial, and military expansion in space. Thousands of humans live or work in space at a variety of habitats across cislunar space, the Moon, and Mars. However, large revenue streams have yet to materialize. Commercial activity is focused in LEO to GEO terrestrial communications, information, PNT, and to provide key parts of the civil and commercial infrastructure required for the continued expansion of human presence in space.

A.2 Key Resulting Military, Civil, and Commercial Characteristics

Military:

* The U.S coalition is the lead military space power. Other space faring nations continuously challenge that lead through expansion of their own capabilities or through alliances with other space faring nations. The U.S coalition has the range of military capabilities necessary to:

* Protect the critical elements of their extensive civil, commercial, and human presence across cislunar space from conventional and cyber threats.
* Protect the combined commercial, civil, and military command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) infrastructure to monitor and control space operations and provide information services in, through, and from the cislunar environment during peace and conflict.
* Project military power throughout the cislunar environment to exercise selected space superiority in time and place as needed for conflicts within space and as part of larger, crossdomain conflicts

Civil

* The U.S coalition successfully leads to establish civil norms of behavior, rules, and laws for space that support their beliefs and interests (free and open markets, open access and transit, etc.). •
* The U.S coalition promotes and leads in multinational development of critical infrastructure (communication, situational awareness, collision avoidance, etc.) while developing independent infrastructure required to ensure national interests during peace and conflict.
* There is limited ability to accomplish civil goals unilaterally. Power is distributed among many space faring nations and entities with a wide range of space capabilities and interests. Competitors and 10 DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release adversaries pursue alternate civil strategies to limit the U.S coalition. There is an expanded set of first-tier commercial space powers: China, India, the U.S., the European Union, Russia, Japan, and Brazil.

Commercial

* The size of the space economy has increased greatly, more so in “Star Trek” and “Garden Earth” but still substantial in “Elysium.”
* Commercial space capabilities provide the preponderance of raw materials and manufactured products to further expand space capabilities.
* The U.S coalition is the lead commercial space power and attracts a disproportionate fraction of global space investment, but the preponderance of commercial capability is distributed across many nations and entities, with China, India, US, the EU, Russia, Japan, and Brazil as first-tier commercial space powers.

B.1 Negative scenarios

* Zheng He: *Expansive but most pessimistic*
An alternate nation exercises leadership over the space domain and has introduced laws and processes that promote their interests or limit the actions of rivals. Leveraging their growing technological edge and by using non-competitive practices, they attract a growing, disproportionate share of global space revenue streams. Thousands of humans live in space to maintain lunar and Mars bases to promote national prestige, further patterns of dependency, and support the technology and infrastructure for commercial and military space leadership.
* Wild Frontier: *Expansive but pessimistic*
No clear space power exercises leadership over the space domain. However, the growth in space capabilities of national and private entities has resulted in global civil, commercial, and military expansion in space and led to large revenue streams. However, human presence is limited, driven primarily by national prestige, exploration, and tourism.
* Xi’s Dream: *Expansive but pessimistic*
An alternate nation is the lead space power, though the importance of space is driven by the increased human presence in space for exploration, tourism, and to support and maintain commercial space capabilities. Large revenue streams have yet to materialize. Commercial activity is focused in LEO to GEO terrestrial communications, information, PNT, and to provide key parts of the civil and commercial infrastructure required for the continued expansion of human presence in space.

B.2 Key Resulting Military, Civil, and Commercial Characteristics

Military

* The alternate chief space nation and its allies lead in military space power and has the range of military capabilities necessary to:

* Defend the critical elements of their civil, commercial, military, and human space assets, as well as a C4ISR to monitor and control space operations and provide information services in, through, and from the cislunar environment during peace and conflict.
* Project power to achieve space superiority across the cislunar domain and across the full range of conflicts in space or that extend to space.
* Leverage their commercial and civil leadership to maintain and further their lead in military space power. They use their commercial lead to exclude other space faring nations from critical locations and resources in space. They use their cost advantage from their space commercial infrastructure to out produce other nations’ space military capabilities.

Civil

* The alternate, chief space power promotes norms of behavior, rules, and laws for space that serve their self-interests. Where not possible, they exploit the diversity of interests of space faring nations/entities to limit the establishment of space norms, rules, and laws that impact their lead position or limit their range of actions.
* They lead in developing multinational space, civil infrastructure to promote alliances, to exert infrastructure control to their benefit in peace and conflict and to establish patterns of dependency for other terrestrial and space powers/entities.
* The preponderance of civil space power is distributed among a large and various group of space faring nations/entities, limiting the ability of the alternate, chief space power to act exclusively in its self-interest.

Commercial

* While the preponderance of commercial power is distributed across a number of nations with the US coalition having a significant space commercial presence, the alternate, chief space power has a large and growing technological and market-share advantage over all other space
* They use non-competitive practices to maintain and extend their lead position with limited capability by the US coalition or other nations to counter these practices. They limit these actions as required to avoid encouraging alliances to oppose them.
* The US subsidizes US space industries supporting critical national needs where supply by the lead space power or its allies pose unacceptable risks.

C.1 Military dominance future: Space Today and Dark Skies

* Space Today (Space as a Warfighting Domain): *Positive*
The U.S. coalition is the leading military space power, though space is a highly contested warfighting domain and an essential element in integrated, cross-domain warfare. Commercial and civil space activities are limited to LEO to GEO systems with minor levels of tourism. Military space systems are highly resilient, maneuverable, robotically refuelable, self-healing to attack, highly integrated, artificial intelligence driven, highly autonomous, and reconstitution ability is enhanced. The U.S coalition holds the advantage in using civil and commercial capabilities to support military capabilities.
* Wild Frontier: *Negative*
Same as above except an alternate nation and its allies are the dominant space power.

C.2 Key Resulting Military, Civil, and Commercial Characteristics

Military

* The importance of space as a warfighting domain has grown, including support to cross domain conflicts.
* Importance has grown driven by the increased capabilities for space systems to support global military information dominance and superiority in C4 capabilities both in and through space.
* The nation with a superior space military capability to obtain and maintain space superiority as required in time and space during conflict has a significant advantage in cross-domain warfare.

Civil

* The leader in civil space has significant advantages in:

* Influence on or control over the civil space infrastructure to its own benefit, particularly during times of conflict.
* Establishing norms of behavior, rule and laws for space that advantage its military use of space.
* The distribution of the preponderance of civil power among space faring nations poses for the lead space power challenges to shape the civil structure to their benefit.
* The non-lead power pursues alliances to counter the lead power’s civil advantages.

Commercial

* There is a significant commercial space economy primarily focused on communication, PNT, and Earth observing, with some level of tourism.
* The lead commercial space power has a significant advantage in the size and strength of the industrial base to support military space systems, providing the lead nation with advantages in the cost of production and number of its military assets.

Conclusion

To summarize, one of the potential future scenarios explored here stems from positive answers to the three questions we posed about the future. In this scenario, space is a major contributor to the human economy, people live and work widely in space, and the U.S. coalition leads in civil, commercial, and military aspects of that future and have shaped the norms of behavior, rules, and laws that moderate space activities to reflect our concepts of a liberal international order (fairness, open commerce, freedom of movement, and international cooperation). This is the most positive future for the U.S.

Recommendation

1. The US must develop a long-term, national space strategy to ensure continued leadership. This strategy should be developed across government, industry, and academia to ensure synergy of efforts to optimize and promote overall U.S. national space power and grand strategy.
2. AFSPC should commit the resources to complete the strategy as outlined in this report as a part of its organize, train, and equip mission. U.S. Space Command should similarly commit resources to this effort as part of their strategic and operational execution missions.
3. The strategy must address how the national security establishment will defend the full range of expanded national interests in space (i.e., civil and commercial space capabilities and citizens in space) - not just the services that directly support national security.
4. Essential capabilities and technologies to enable positive future outcomes must be developed by the whole of government. An investment, policy, and regulatory strategy must be pursued to ensure those capabilities.
5. The nation must commit to investment in science and technology to drive the rapidly changing global space environment as a key element of the strategy.