Description

I used two frames of the raw footage and skipped 1 millisecond apart and measured the distance it traveled in that time. Which resulted in 50 pixels (at 2550x1440 resize)

Reference frame of my resized footage 1 ms apart, including the pixel measurements (https://preview.redd.it/n3fg6r1kwzb71.png?width=2550&format=png&auto=…)

50 pixels * 100 ms = 5000 pixels/second velocity.

Next I needed a point of reference, so I looked up the real estate on google maps and measured the distance from the doorstep to my estimated position of drone and the width of the doorstep to calculate the speed such an object would have if it would move as fast (visually in video) in front of the doorstep.

Estimated distance to camera (https://preview.redd.it/5ttwrdhnwzb71.png?width=531&format=png&auto=w…)

Doorstep width (https://preview.redd.it/81igp9kywzb71.png?width=749&format=png&auto=w…)

So we got 1.60 meters width of doorway and as you can see in the first reference picture, the doorway width is roughly ~~150~~ 230 pixels.

1.60 m (doorstep width) / ~~150~~ 230 pixels (amount of pixels in reference)

0.007 m/pixel

This means an object at the doorstep flying visually as fast as the object in the video, would travel 0.007 meters per pixel.

Now we multiply the pixel travel distance to get the objects speed in front of the doorstep.

5000 pixels/s * 0.007 m/pixel = 35 m/s (at doorstep)

Now when dividing by the distance to the camera we get the speed of the object that it would have to have at 1 meter distance to appear as fast as the object in the video.

35 m/s / 9.00 m = 3.88 m/s (1 meters in front of camera)

Now we can easily multiply this with a distance to calculate the speeds at the respective distance:

((3.88 m/s * distance * 60 seconds * 60 minutes) / 1000m) = velocity in kph

|Distance (meters)|Speed kph|Speed mph|Estimated object size at distance (cm)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|10|139|86|1,97|
|20|279|173|3,91|
|22|307|190|3,92|
|25|349|216|4,91|
|50|698|433|9,87|
|100|1,396|867|19,42|
|500|6,984|4339|97,11|
|1000|13,968|8679|194,22 (1.9 meters)|
|2500|34,920|21,698|485,55 (4.8 meters)|
|5000|69,840|43,396|971,10 (9.7 meters)|

We also need to consider that this is the horizontal speed I was calculating here and since the object is actually flying away from the camera diagonally it is even faster than the calculated speeds.

~~Seeing this data we don't even need the size of the object to calculate its distance since at 50 meters you would hear anything at 430 mph, this is no bird and no current propulsion vehicle that we publicly possess.~~

If the footage supplied by that person is legit and not altered, then this is the best footage of an UFO that we publicly have.

EDIT: I did some more calculations, if it is a peregrine falcons that dives right above the house so that you can only see its belly (roughly 20 meters away (roughly diagonally from camera position to above the house))

~~Then we would get ((20 m * 2.69 m/s * 60 seconds * 60 minutes) / 1000 meters) = 193 kph, so it could still be a bird.~~

EDIT2: I used the 77 degrees FOV of the Mavic 2 Pro camera to calculate the sizes required, for the object to appear in the footage like they do, at certain distances. I used this website https://www.vision-doctor.com/en/optical-calculations/calculation-obj… to calculate the total object size at certain distances and calculated the percentage the object inhabits of the whole picture (3 pixel / 2550 pixel width of reference = 0.0117 % and multiplied this by the calculated total object sizes given by the website's calculation.

So take the size calculation with a grain of salt, but I did a reverse check by calculating the doorstep width with that method and it seems to check out pretty much.

My conclusion at this moment is, that it is actually a golf ball flying at 20-25 meters distance to the drone, pretty close above the house.

EDIT3: Corrected some measuring error pointed out by sleep_deprived_maybe (https://www.reddit.com/user/sleep_deprived_maybe/) my pixel reference would actually be 230 pixels and not 150 pixel since I took the distance from planter to planter on the doorstep.

EDIT4: According to my size calculation, the camera is actually just 9 meters from the doorstep.

(150 pixels (~90cm door size) / 2550 pixel (total image width) ) * 15.1 meters (total size of object at 9 meters distance with 80 degrees of FOV = ~88 cm

https://preview.redd.it/c62ivr3a42c71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=w…

It also visually matches better with my reference frames of the video.